Hi folks,
I'm sure many of you are familiar with the Art of Trading "Top Pick of the Week" Strategy. I thought this strategy up in mid 2021 and decided to put it into practice in 2022. Since then the strategy has become VERY popular with Art of Trading members!
We've covered the Top Pick of the Week extensively on the Art of Trading blog since its inception. Basically the strategy uses a fixed $10,000 position size each week. A "Top Pick", which is sent to Art of Trading members Sunday evening is then simply bought on the Monday morning open and then simply sold on the Friday afternoon close. The position size stays fixed ($10,000) each week. Very simple and straight forward!
I developed the strategy for those that have professional lives and full time obligations outside of the market and can't always be around screens to trade. It provides a way to be involved in the market with very little effort!
Since I've made this strategy live the Top Pick of the Week returned:
+115.74% in 2022 [Full review]
+131.86% in 2023 [Full review]
A full analysis on the strategy since inception can be found [here]
At the end of each week I update the Top Pick of the Week blog post with the results so its easy to follow along and adds transparency!
Below are the live stats for 2024 (1 week lag)! Be sure to check this post each Sunday evening for a new update for the previous week!
***A small modification to the strategy might be warranted in the case of overbought and oversold levels in the market. Occasionally the market will reach these conditions and it may make sense to hold off on the "Top Pick" when these conditions are met. The chances of the market making a sharp countertrend move during these times is heightened. These conditions are rarely met so it doesn't change the overall strategy in a major way.
2024 Live Stats:
*Based on a $10k position
Percent Gain after Week 50: + 52.96%
Profit / Loss after Week 50: + $5296
Week 1 Top Pick: $BAC
*** NOTE for Week 1:
I sent a quick email to Art of Trading members for Week 1. I opted to wait to see how the market opened the first day of the year (January 2nd) instead of just jumping in. I wanted to see if there were any relative strength leaders to get a better feel for the Top Pick.
Here was the note explaining my thoughts:
"Hey folks,
It was a pleasure working with you all in 2023! Look forward to doing it again in 2024!
As far as this week's STOCKS TO WATCH list & AOT Top Pick strategy, I have the list ready to go but I'm going to wait until after today's close to send it out. I want to get a feel for how the first day of the new year goes.
Thank you and happy trading!"
$BAC: (long setup) forming a tidy bullish flag pattern up here with good relative strength to start the new year. Looking for more potential upside this week.
Target: $38 to $40
$BAC opened strong Tuesday putting financials on the relative strength leaders list. Wednesday $BAC traded slightly below Tuesdays low but was able to reclaim it and close relative strong on the day. Thursday $BAC attempted to breakout above $34, it traded above that spot but faded mid day. Friday $BAC made the breakout and closed strong!
$BAC traded up +2.32% on the week starting Wednesday, giving the Top Pick of the Week portfolio a strong start to 2024!
Week 2 Top Pick: $UPST
$UPST: (long setup) Looking for more potential upside this week since the stock pulled back about 35% in the last few days. It pulled back 6 days in a row. Looks about ready for a bounce going into the week. I'm liking the risk to reward profile here.
Targets: $40 to $42
$UPST started the week quite strong trending steadily higher into Wednesday. Thursday through Friday the stock wasn't able to shake off weakness, closing down -6.47% on the week. The Top Pick of the week takes a systematic approach which thrives on averages. Just a minor bump in the road.
Week 3 Top Pick: $INTC
$INTC: (long setup) forming a tidy pullback here to settle at the 20 day MA (Holy Grail Setup) and several narrow ranged candles. Looking for more potential upside this week.
Targets: $51 to $55
$INTC opened down slightly Tuesday morning, which wasn't necessarily a bad thing giving a strong potential entry to the Top Pick of the Week. Wednesday though Thursday $INTC tried to hold on to opening gains but faded into the close. Friday ended up being the reversal day making a +3.02% move. Closing the week out on a strong +2.49% gain.
Week 4 Top Pick: $COIN
*** NOTE for Week 4:
The original Top Pick of the Week idea was $S for the Monday morning open. Earlier that morning the stock caught an upgrade and gapped up +8% so before the 9:30 AM EST open that morning I sent an email to all AoT members to skip it because of this condition.
Later on that afternoon I sent a new Top Pick of the Week idea $COIN to be bought the following morning, Tuesday. For Week 4 $COIN was the Top Pick of the Week.
$COIN: (long setup) made a nice 37% pullback recently. Made a nice hammer reversal candle on Friday.
Target: $145 to $150
$COIN chopped and churned for the week but offered a low risk entry Tuesday morning. The lower entry allowed the idea to perform on the week, although not as strong as I had anticipated.
$COIN traded up +2.27% on the week starting Tuesday, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio back into positive territory year-to-date!
Week 5 Top Pick: $S
$S: (long setup) Looking for more upside this week since the stock made a smooth and steady pullback to the 20 day MA after last Monday's analyst upgrade.
Targets: $30
$S Made a gap up open Monday morning holding that strength and closing near highs on the day. Tuesday through Wednesday the stocks sold down but made a recovery Thursday through Friday. Overall a choppy week for $S closing down -1.75% on the week. Overall the setup remains technically sound but volatile near the $28 point of resistance.
Stay tuned for more exciting updates and ideas next week!
Week 6 Top Pick: $SOXL
*** NOTE for Week 6:
We booked the gain on $SOXL around 11AM EST Friday. I sent an alert to AoT members stating my intentions to book the profits on the Top Pick. The price at that time was $38.85!
"This AOT TOP PICK trade hit targets for this week. Suggest you close this trade now and no need to wait until Friday's/today's close."
$SOXL: (long setup) An orderly pullback with a strong looking falling wedge setup. SEMI's have been relative strength leaders so I'm looking for a reversal trade higher this week.
Target: $37 to $39
$SOXL opened and closed with strength on Monday then made a move lower Tuesday. Tuesday ended up being the low for the week as $SOXL rallied strongly higher Wednesday all the way into Fridays close.
$SOXL traded up +12.45% from the Monday open into our early exit on Friday, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio to +11.31% YTD!
Week 7 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) A very constructive consolidation pattern here on the rising 20 day MA. A leading stock from the super strong Semis sector. Volume patterns continues to look very impressive!
Targets: $190 to $200
$AMD opened and traded nearly flat on the Monday. $AMD Opened with a gap down Tuesday but was able to recover by the end of the day and close near Mondays closing price, more or less a "shake-out" day. Wednesday ended up being a strong trend day but Thursday and Friday ended up giving the majority of that move up.
$AMD ended the week higher with a small +0.69% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +12% YTD. A strong start to the year!
Week 8 Top Pick: $IBM
$IBM: (long setup) Looking for more upside this week in the stock as it made a recent smooth post-PEG consolidation pattern. Showed very nice relative strength all week and especially on Friday.
Targets: $200 to $210
$IBM opened flat then faded the majority of the day Tuesday with downside follow through Wednesday. $NVDA earnings reignited the tech sector for the week allowing $IBM to rally sharply off its $178.75 low made on Wednesday. $IBM closed the week at $185.72. Just 1% under Tuesdays opening price.
$IBM ended the week lower with a small -1.02% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +10.98% YTD on the week.
Week 9 Top Pick: $TSM
*** NOTE for Week 9: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $TSM was taken on Tuesday's open!
$TSM: (long setup) A PEG candle recently and a constructive pullback to test the 20 day MA. Volume patterns continue to look good! 3 mini ranged digestion candles in a row. Look for a big move this week.
Target: $150
$TSM opened flat then faded the majority of the day Tuesday with downside follow through Wednesday. Thursday the stock ticked back up and found excellent follow through strength Friday. Semi's reignited a move this week. $NVDA, $AMD and $SMCI showing continued relative strength.
$TSM ended the week higher with a +2.39% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +13.37% YTD. A new YTD high!
Week 10 Top Pick: $SARK
*** NOTE for Week 10: The Top Pick sent Sunday ($CLSK) evening was skipped Monday morning because it was gapping up 8%. I sent an email to AoT members making note of this.
"The AoT Top Pick for week was $CLSK however the stock is gapping up around 8% in premarket so we are going to CANCEL this Top Pick and hold off until after today's close! I'll send out a new AOT Top Pick after today's close."
$SARK was later sent as the replacement for Tuesdays open.
$SARK: (long setup) This is the Bearish ETF for $ARKK fund. Seeing Distribution Volume patterns piling up as a Double Top pattern is slowly creeping into the charts. Any hints of a pullback for the major indices this week should send $SARK moving sharply higher especially with Fed Chairman Powell making comments this week. Indices might be looking for a reason for a quick pullback.
Target: $28.50 to $30
$SARK opened strong Tuesday morning with volume and strength throughout the day closing out Tuesday near the high of the day. It faded Wednesday through Friday but recovered slightly Friday afternoon into the close.
$SARK ended the week lower with a small -1.71% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +11.66% YTD on the week.
Week 11 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 11: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $NVDA was taken on Tuesday's open!
$NVDA: (long setup) a two day pullback in what is "the Strongest stock" in the market at the moment. Made a big PEG candle recently and this is the first pullback since. A 13% pullback in two days. I highly doubt this stock will pullback much more than the 13% it already made since Friday's highs.
Target: $975 to $1000
$NVDA opened strong Tuesday and rallied higher for the entire day closing at the high of the day. $NVDA faded Wednesday through Friday. More consolidation may be needed in this spot for now.
$NVDA ended the week slightly lower with a -0.24% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +11.42% YTD.
Week 12 Top Pick: $SOXL
*** NOTE for Week 12:
We booked this Top Pick in 2 parts. One part booked on Thursday at $48.50. I sent an email to Art of Trading members letting them know!
$SOXL: (long setup) a nice smooth pullback in the market's leading sector. Look for a big reversal this week after Friday's "hollow" candle.
Target $50 to $55
$SOXL opened strong Monday but faded into lows on Tuesday. The fail safe for current Art of Trading Top Picks is a maximum 16% drawdown. This threshold wasn't hit and the trade reversed course mid day Tuesday. Strength carried through Wednesday into Thursday. Friday it opened weak but closed strong.
In total the Top Pick strategy realized +6.17% from the Monday open into our two part exit Thursday and the close on Friday, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio to new YTD highs! +17.59% YTD!
Week 13 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) a very nice pullback recently that crossed below the 50 day MA and reversed back above it multiple times. A 20% pullback in a few short days. Looking for a big bounce next week despite the China news regarding banning AMD chips from Chinese Government computers. Excellent risk to reward entry here.
Targets: $220 to $230
$AMD gapped down on the China news Monday morning which ended up being a blessing in disguise as it provided the Top Pick with a strong entry for the week. After the Red to Green move Monday $AMD traded sideways for the rest of the week.
$AMD ended the week higher with a +4.39% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +21.98% YTD. A new YTD high!
Week 14 Top Pick: $MU
*** NOTE for Week 14:
We booked this Top Pick in 2 parts. One part booked on Monday into strength at $125.85. The second part as per the strategy at Fridays close. I sent an email to Art of Trading members letting them know!
$MU: (long setup) A powerful PEG candle recently and a very constructive post-PEG consolidation pattern with an INSIDE DAY candle on Friday. Volume patterns continue to look good! Strong momentum here, should continue to trek higher as a relative strength leader.
Target $130
$MU opened strong Monday and traded up the majority of the day on strength. Tuesday $MU made an inside day but accelerated higher Wednesday. Thursday and Friday $MU faded from highs.
In total the Top Pick strategy realized +4.64% from the Monday open into our two part exit Monday and the close on Friday, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio to new YTD highs! +26.62% YTD!
Week 15 Top Pick: $MSFT
$MSFT: (long setup) made a PEG candle recently. Looking for more upside/breakout this week after the recent very healthy post-PEG consolidation. INSIDE DAY candle on Friday.
Targets: $475 to $500
$MSFT A choppy up and down week for Microsoft. Much the same as the way the market traded.
$MSFT ended the week slightly lower with a -0.77% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +25.85% YTD.
Week 16 Top Pick: $GLD
*** NOTE for Week 16: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $GLD was taken on Tuesday's open!
$GLD: (long setup) a mini consolidation pattern shaping up here after hitting NEW ALL TIME HIGHS last week. Looking for more upside this week as this sector gets more momentum during turbulent geo-political environments.
Target: $140 to $250
$GLD made a Red to Green move Tuesday morning. Wednesday through Thursday the ETF chopped around but managed to close strong on the weakest market day of the week on Friday! A huge win given the circumstances of the market this week!
$GLD ended the week higher with a +0.39% gain from Tuesdays opening. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closes out +26.24% YTD.
Week 17 Top Pick: $SOXL
*** NOTE for Week 17:
We booked this Top Pick in 2 parts. We sold half on Wednesday into strength at $37. The second half was sold on Friday morning at $38.50. Art of Trading members were notified on each part as it was sold.
$SOXL: (long setup) Made a big pullback recently in SMH(and SOXL). Looking for more upside this week after today's INSIDE DAY candle.
Target $38 to $40
$SOXL opened strong Tuesday and continued that strength into Wednesday. We sold some strength Wednesday to position for volatility through Thursday with $MSFT, $GOOGL and $INTC earnings releases. $SOXL traded strong and closed on highs Thursday. Positive earnings reports from $MSFT and $GOOGL helped propel the market higher Friday giving us our second exit earlier Friday morning at $38.50. Our average exit price was $37.75. Locking in an incredible week for the Top Pick strategy! This was the biggest trade for the Top Pick strategy YTD!
In total the Top Pick strategy realized +15.02% from the Tuesday open into our two part exit Wednesday and Friday intraday, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio to new YTD highs! +41.26% YTD!
Week 18 Top Pick: $CRWD
$CRWD: (long setup) made a very healthy pullback recently (A leading name in the cyber security sector). Looking for more upside this week after testing the 100 day MA.
Targets: $340 to $360
$CRWD A choppy up and down week for CRWD. Following the flow of the market. The setup remains strong into next week though.
$CRWD ended the week slightly lower with a -0.76% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +40.50% YTD.
Week 19 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) made a very healthy pullback recently(A leading name in the Semis/AI sector). Looking for more upside this week after testing the 50 day MA.
Target: $1000 to $1100
$NVDA made a strong daily candle on Monday but basically chopped up and down within the range of the Mondays candle for the remainder of the week. The stock still looks great for next week!
$NVDA ended the week slightly higher with a +0.55% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed the week out +41.05% YTD.
Week 20 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 20: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $NVDA was taken on Tuesday's open!
We sold the position mid day Friday at $935 instead of waiting for the close this week.
$NVDA: (long setup) made a very healthy consolidation recently (A leading name in the Semis/AI sector). Looking for more upside this week after testing the 50 day MA. Coiling well here.
Target: $1000 to $1100
$NVDA open strong Tuesday and rallied higher for the entire day closing at the high of the day. $NVDA continued to show strength through Wednesday. $NVDA faded with the market Thursday through Fridays close. This stock reports earnings next week!
$NVDA ended the week higher with a +4.35% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out into new YTD highs! +45.40% YTD!
Week 21 Top Pick: $AMZN
$AMZN: (long setup) Look for an upside bounce this week after a wedge pattern is emerging here. A mini ranged candle on Friday.
Targets: $200
$AMZN opened slightly higher on Monday to start the trading week. It didn't give much in the way of tradeable action Monday through Friday. A low volume fade through out the week. Finishing lower on Friday.
$AMZN ended the week slightly lower with a small -1.95% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +43.45% YTD.
Week 22 Top Pick: $MU & $CLSK (half sized positions)
*** NOTE for Week 22: I opted to select two Top Picks for week 22. These were two positions split into half sized positions. $CLSK was the higher beta trade between the two. Ideally this setup would have worked much better if we had a strong week but that wasn't the case.
$MU: (long setup) Acting really well since the recent PEG. Showing persistent strength and should continue to trek higher through $130 resistance.
Target: $150
$MU open strong Tuesday but faded Wednesday through Friday. Following the price action very closely of the broader market. Fridays reversal set the name up for a potential bounce into the next week. The position drew down -2.56% on the week.
$CLSK: (long setup) Starting to look like it's forming a nice basing pattern here and looks like it's gearing up for an upside breakout in the next week or two. 17% short interest!
Target: $21 to $24
$CLSK traded basically inline with last weeks environment, following the market lower. The position drew down -5.16% on the week.
$MU & $CLSK closed the week lower with a combined loss of with a -7.72%. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week at +35.73% YTD!
Week 23 Top Pick: $DELL
$DELL: (long setup) Made a very big pullback on Friday following a huge pre-earnings run up as this company is emerging as a key player in the A.I. space. Tested 50 day MA and reversed off lows on Friday. The 50 day MA has been a key reversal spot for $DELL over the past several months(see second $DELL chart). Seeing this pullback as an excellent buying opportunity for this week's AOT Top Pick.
Targets: $160 to $170
$DELL opened slightly higher on Monday to start the trading week. Trading down for the day Monday the stock found strength again Tuesday through Wednesday. Unfortunately it wasn't able to hold that strength Thursday into the close Friday. Occasionally stocks underperform which is why staying sized the same each week and disciplined with the entry and exit strategy with a strategy like this is important. A small bump in the road.
$DELL ended the week lower with a -7.53% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +28.20% YTD.
Week 24 Top Pick: $MU
*** NOTE for Week 24: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening.
$MU: (long setup) Acting really well here as it attempts a new highs breakout. Should keep trending higher without much pullbacks.
Target: $150
$MU opened flat Tuesday managing to hold onto the strong move it made Monday. It continued to grind higher all the way into the end of the week giving back a small portion Friday afternoon.
$MU ended the week higher with a +4.48% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out at +32.68% YTD!
Week 25 Top Pick: $GOOGL
$GOOGL: (long setup) Acting well here as it forms a decent consolidation pattern here on the 20 day MA. Look for more upside/breakout in the next few days/ weeks.
Targets: $200
$GOOGL opened strong Monday and faded Tuesday. Thursday $GOOGL made a relative strength move higher and followed that strength through Friday closing on new all time highs!
$GOOGL ended the week higher with a +2.38% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +35.06% YTD on the week!
Week 26 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 26: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $NVDA was taken on Tuesday's open!
$NVDA: (long setup) $NVDA (and $SMH Semis ETF) has been the leading sector for the entire year thus far. Leading sectors are buys on pullback phases. Liking the 15% pullback in $NVDA last few days to test the 20 day MA. It's the first 20 day MA test since the late May PEG candle. Good spot for a reversal and bounce especially in leading PEG stocks! Really like this setup here.
Target: $130 to $140
$NVDA open strong Tuesday and rallied higher for the entire day closing at the high of the day. $NVDA continued to show strength through Wednesday. $NVDA faded with the market Thursday through Fridays close.
$NVDA ended the week higher with a +1.93% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +36.99% YTD!
Week 27 Top Pick: $SOXL
*** NOTE for Week 27: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $SOXL was taken on Tuesday's open!
We booked this Top Pick in 2 parts. We sold half on Wednesday into strength at $61. The second half was sold at the close on Friday at $60.81.
$SOXL: (long setup) Acting well here as it forms a decent Holy Grail pattern here(multiple tail candles on the 20 day MA). Look for more upside reversal/bounce in the next few days/ weeks.
Target $60 to $65
$SOXL opened down on Tuesday morning giving a strong entry from a risk vs reward standpoint. $SOXL rallied off of that gap down open Tuesday morning allowing us to book half of the trade later in the afternoon on Wednesday. Strength continued Friday making a very strong week for the Top Pick of the Week strategy!
In total the Top Pick strategy realized +12.03% from the Tuesday open into our two part exit Wednesday and Friday's close, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio to new YTD highs! +49.02% YTD!
Week 28 Top Pick: $META
*** NOTE for Week 28: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $META was taken on Tuesday's open!
$META: (long setup) Broke out to new ALL TIME HIGHS last week, pulled back nicely today. Liking the odds of a continued rally this week to resume where it left off last week.
Target: $550 to $570
$META made an inside day candle on Tuesday July 9th and continued to trade a tight price range Wednesday. Heavy rotation was witnessed on Thursday after the CPI data was released earlier that morning. Many large cap tech names were hit with that rotation out. $META unfortunately wasn't spared and closed lower on the week.
$META ended the week lower with a -6.53% loss from the Tuesday open, a small paper cut that we will look to make back in the coming weeks. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +42.49% YTD.
Week 29 Top Pick: $CLSK & $MU (half sized positions)
*** NOTE for Week 29: I opted to select two Top Picks for week 29. These were two positions split into half sized positions. $CLSK was the higher beta trade between the two. $CLSK made a dramatic move higher earlier in the week. We took advantage of this and booked the gain on Tuesday!
$CLSK: (long setup) Although this has been a very choppy stock in recent weeks, the chop has been fairly range-bound with clear support levels being carved out. The recent price action is now testing the lower end of the range thus making for a low risk/high reward entry here. Bitcoin is due for a good bounce as it sold off lately.
Target: $18 to $20
$CLSK traded with incredible strength Monday through Tuesday. We took the position off Tuesday afternoon at $19.70 for a +8.08% gain (half sized). $CLSK met all expectations.
$MU: (long setup) A very nice pullback since the last earnings report that's digesting smartly at the 50 day MA and looks to be bottoming here. Looking for an upside push this week.
Target: $150 to $157
$MU basically traded down the entire week. 5 red days in a row, -7.34% loss (half sized). Next week a bounce for this name should be in the cards.
$CLSK & $MU closed the week near flat with a combined gain of with a +0.74%. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week at +43.23% YTD!
Week 30 Top Pick: $CLSK & $AMD (half sized positions)
*** NOTE for Week 30: I opted to select two Top Picks for week 30. These were two positions split into half sized positions.
$CLSK: (long setup) Although this has been a very choppy stock in recent weeks, the chop has been fairly range-bound with clear support levels being carved out. The recent price action is now testing the lower end of the range thus making for a low risk/high reward entry here. Bitcoin has been showing good relative strength lately which should help propel this $CLSK.
Target: $20 to $21
$CLSK traded down Tuesday through Thursday but made a solid bounce attempt Friday. This Top pick closed down with a -2.37% loss (half sized).
$AMD: (long setup) Made a nice 20% pullback in the last 2 weeks or so. Looks about ready for a multi-day bounce as it retests support here. Good risk to reward for a bounce play.
Target: $170
$AMD was weak along with the entire semiconductor sector on the week. This Top pick closed down with a -4.82% loss (half sized).
$CLSK & $AMD closed the week down with a combined loss of -7.19%. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week at +36.04% YTD!
Week 31 Top Pick: $KLAC
*** NOTE for Week 31: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $KLAC short* was taken on Tuesday's open!
We booked this Top Pick shortly after the open on Friday August 2nd at $699 area!
$KLAC: (short setup) the stock made a Bearish PEG candle recently. Carved out a Post-PEG bearish flag here with heavy Distribution Volume patterns piling up! Firm stop $840!
Target $720 to $700
$KLAC opened higher from Mondays close on Tuesday morning giving a strong entry from a risk vs reward standpoint. $KLAC sold down the entire day Tuesday giving us a strong start on the trade. Wednesday was a strong trend day for the market but all of that strength and gain was given back and then some Thursday. Friday provided a big gap down open to cover the short position for the +11.29% gain for the week!
In total the Top Pick strategy realized +11.29% from the Tuesday open into our exit Friday morning, pushing the Top Pick of the Week portfolio higher in a very turbulent week in the market. The Top Pick is now +47.33% YTD!
Week 32 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 32: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $NVDA was taken on Tuesday's open!
$NVDA: (long setup) the stock made a big 35% pullback in a few weeks and now retesting some key support levels. With NAMO now in oversold territory, looking for a big bounce in NVDA this week.
Target: $120
$NVDA gapped up on the Tuesday open. Price fluctuated nearly 7% on the day as $VIX extended into extreme fear territory. $NVDA fluctuated rapidly throughout the rest of the week ultimately closing slightly higher than the Tuesday morning entry.
$NVDA ended the week slightly higher with a +0.83% gain from the Tuesday open. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week at +48.16% YTD.
Week 33 Top Pick: $TZA
*** NOTE for Week 33: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $TZA was taken on Tuesday's open!
$TZA: (long setup) This is the Triple Leveraged Bearish ETF for $IWM. Made a nice pullback in the last week, now forming a bullish flag. $IWM forming a Bearish flag pattern here.
FIRM STOP: $15.50
Target: $19 to $20
$TZA traded down on the Tuesday open setting the position up for a strong entry. It closed weak on Tuesday but made progress higher on Wednesday. Thursday $TZA pushed lower on a strong jobs data headline. We took the $15.50 stop on Thursday helping limit losses to the downside.
$TZA ended the week lower with a -9.46% loss from the Tuesday open into the stop loss on Thursday afternoon. The stop loss helped limit the loss on this Top Pick allowing us to preserve strong YTD gains! The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +38.70% YTD.
Week 34 Top Pick: $MU
*** NOTE for Week 34: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $MU was taken on Tuesday's open!
$MU: (long setup) Acting well here after it bottomed less than 2 weeks ago. Slowly yet surely gathering upside momentum. RSI was extremely oversold recently. Due for a big bounce at this point.
Target: $120 to $125
$MU traded sideways Tuesday through Wednesday. Thursday $MU traded down with the market and was unable to reverse that weakness Friday.
$MU ended the week lower with a -5.06% loss from the Tuesday open into the Friday close. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +33.64% YTD.
Week 35 Top Pick: $MSTR & $ANET (half sized positions)
*** NOTE for Week 35: I opted to select two Top Picks for week 35. These were two positions split into half sized positions.
$MSTR: (long setup) Acting well here after it bottomed less than 2 weeks ago. Slowly yet surely gathering upside momentum. The Fed comments this week, should create a Rotation into crypto and other higher risk assets. Volume uptick on Friday.
Target: $180
$MSTR traded down Tuesday through Thursday but made a solid bounce attempt Friday. This Top pick closed down with a -5.30% loss (half sized).
$ANET: (long setup) setting up well in a mini range pattern. Look for upside breakout this week.
Target: $375
$ANET traded down Monday but found support Tuesday through Thursday finding strength to close the week on Friday. $ANET closed down with a -0.55% loss (half sized). This technical setup is still valid for a potential breakout in the coming days / week.
$MSTR & $ANET closed the week down with a combined loss of -5.85%. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week at +27.79% YTD!
Week 36 Top Pick: $PHM
$PHM: (long setup) This sector is showing good relative strength and printed numerous PEGs recently. With the Fed pivoting to cut rates, this could be the needed tail-winds to drive the Home builders' sector higher.
Targets: $150
$PHM opened strong Tuesday but faded lower with the market for the majority of the day. Wednesday and Thursday $PHM held up with the market. Friday $PHM flexed some relative strength and closed up +1.50% on the day reversing most of the weekly loss. This technical setup still remains constructive.
$PHM ended the week slightly lower with a -1.13% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +26.66% YTD on the week!
Week 37 Top Pick: $JPM
$JPM: (long setup) pulled back over 11% to test major $200 area horizontal support after hitting new all time highs six days ago. JPM tends to make nice bounce back phases after 10% to 12% pullbacks to support. Today's big red shakeout candle looks to have cleaned out many stops which oftentimes clear the path for a bounce back phase.
Targets: $215 to $225
$JPM opened weak Wednesday but managed to stage a reversal mid day. Thursday $JPM traded sideways for the majority of the day. Friday $JPM gave back most of Wednesdays rally attempt closing down on the day.
$JPM ended the week slightly lower with a -0.45% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +26.21% YTD on the week!
Week 38 Top Pick: $MU
$MU: (long setup) A double bottom pattern emerging here after giving up all of its big 2024 gains since June's bearish engulfing candle top. Risk to reward looks quite attractive here for a rally/bounce phase. MACD/RSI bullish divergences taking shape as well!
Target: $110
$MU traded much of the week in sideways fashion but exhibited relative strength characteristics on Friday, grinding out a solid gain on the day and ultimately the week!
$MU ended the week higher with a +4.20% gain from the Monday open into the Friday close. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +30.41% YTD.
Week 39 Top Pick: $TNA
$TNA: (long setup) With Fed lowering rates, small caps should begin to see bigger upside as rotation into the laggards picks up momentum. Risk to reward looks quite attractive here after a big choppy phase and sudden shift in momentum.
Target: $50 to $52
$TNA struggled to make a strong daily close this week but the technical setup remains strong. This setup continues to be valid in the coming week.
$TNA ended the week slightly lower with a -2.48% loss from the Monday open into the Friday close. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +27.93% YTD.
Week 40 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 40: We opted to skip the Stocks to watchlist for Sunday evening waiting to get a better feel of the market through Monday. The Top Pick of the Week was sent Monday evening. $NVDA was taken on Tuesday's open!
$NVDA: (long setup) The last few months' chop on NVDA stock is starting to take the shape of an Inverse H&S pattern. I believe this leading Semi/AI behemoth will be making new all time highs before the year is out as it breaks out from this bullish formation.
Target: $130 to $140
$NVDA Tuesday was met with weakness but the stock was able to rally higher Wednesday through Friday closing the week on highs! The $NVDA weekly and daily timeframe remains strong for a breakout in the coming days / weeks.
$NVDA ended the week higher with a +2.59% gain from the Monday open into the Friday close. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +30.41% YTD.
Week 41 Top Pick: $NVDL
*** NOTE for Week 41: We sold $NVDL in two parts this week in order to lock in early gains at the start of the week and then continue to hold half into the Friday close. I alerted AoT members to sell half on the Monday afternoon at $66.40. The second half was sold on the Friday close. The average sale price was $68.67
$NVDL: (long setup) The last few months' chop in $NVDA stock is starting to take the shape of a beautiful Inverse H&S pattern. I believe this leading Semi/AI behemoth will be making new all time highs before the year is out as it breaks out from this bullish formation.
Target: $70 to $80
$NVDL opened flat Monday morning giving an ideal entry to the Top Pick of the Week. $NVDL rallied close to 10% on Monday. AoT members used this early strength to lock in half of the gain at $66.40. We held the rest of the position as usual into the Friday close at $70.94. The average exit price was 68.67 on the position.
$NVDL ended the week higher with a +12.04% average gain from the Monday open into the Friday close taking into account the two part exit. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +42.56% YTD.
Week 42 Top Pick: $VST
$VST: (long setup) A lovely reversal candle on Friday after a multi-day pullback. Good spot for a bounce back phase here after testing the 20 day EMA(Holy Grail setup). Accumulation Volume patterns piling up as Utility stocks/companies like VST, CEG are becoming A.I. plays.
Target: $140 to $150
$VST made a strong start to the week continuing into a strong gap up open Thursday. Strength into the open was sold Thursday. Friday the stock managed to recover some of Thursdays weakness ending the week on a positive note.
$VST ended the week higher with a +2.65% gain from the Monday open into the Friday close. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +45.21% YTD.
Week 43 Top Pick: $AFRM
$AFRM: (long setup) Made a lovely hammer reversal candle on Friday off the rising 20 day MA. Accumulation Volume patterns continue to be aggressive.
Targets: $50 to $55
$AFRM opened slightly higher on Monday to start the trading week. Trading down for the day Monday the stock found strength again Tuesday. Unfortunately it wasn't able to hold that strength Wednesday into the close Friday. Occasionally stocks underperform which is why staying sized the same each week and disciplined with the entry and exit strategy with the Top Pick strategy is important. A small bump in the road.
$AFRM ended the week lower with a -10.04% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +35.17% YTD.
Week 44 Top Pick: $AFRM
*** NOTE for Week 44: We sold $AFRM in two parts this week in order to lock in early gains in the middle of the week and then continue to hold half into the Friday close. I alerted AoT members to sell half on the Wednesday afternoon at $45.90. The second half was sold on the Friday close. The average sale price was $44.57
$AFRM: (long setup) a steady, controlled, low volume pullback last few days to test the rising 50 day MA. Look for a big bounce/reversal phase next week. The BNPL sector has seen a good rotation recently as interest rates begin to decline. A reversal/bounce looks imminent after the recent pullback. Love the Risk to Reward here.
Target: $50
$AFRM attempted to stage a rally Monday. Tuesday through Wednesday the stock pushed higher giving an opportunity to book mid week gains Wednesday afternoon on half of the position. The stock was met with weakness Thursday through Friday but overall managed to close higher on the week!
$AFRM ended the week higher with a +6.45% average gain from the Monday open into the Friday close, taking into account the two part exit. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +41.62% YTD.
Week 45 & 46 Top Pick: $ALAB
*** NOTE for Week 45 & 46: We took $ALAB at the open on November 7th and held it through into November 15th!
$ALAB: (long setup) Made a powerful PEG candle on Tuesday. Gapped down open this morning and steadily ramped up all day. Think we'll continue to see strong upside follow-thru higher in this one. Big Accumulation Volume patterns recently. Also has 9% short interest which helps add to the appeal.
Targets: $120
$ALAB opened strong on November 7th but just chopped near highs. The weakness in the market last week didn't help the cause.
$ALAB ended the week lower with a -12.68% loss. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +28.94% YTD.
Week 47 Top Pick: $TNA
$TNA: (long setup) Small caps($IWM) exploded higher after the elections and have pulled back quite a bit last week to now test the 20 day MA. This is a good spot for a bounce phase to begin this week.
Target: $52 to $55
$TNA opened and stayed flat Monday providing the Top Pick with a solid entry for the week. $TNA gapped down Tuesday but quickly reversed higher and closed on the high of the day. Wednesday through Friday $TNA continued to show relative strength closing out on the high of the day and week to finish the day Friday.
$TNA ended the week at highs with a +12.53% gain from the Monday open into the Friday close! The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out the week +41.47% YTD.
Week 48 & 49 Top Pick: $PLTR
*** NOTE for Week 48 & 49: We took $PLTR at the open on November 25th and held it through into December 5th! It was sold mid day December 5th at $72.15.
$PLTR: (long setup) Made a very nice PEG candle a few days back and digested smartly sideways in a bullish consolidation. Look for more upside traction out of this mini bullish consolidation pattern. Lovely INSIDE DAY candle on Friday.
Targets: $75 to $80
$PLTR made a strong momentum move above the 20 EMA from its PEG back on November 5th. The trend remained strong allowing us to hold this momentum move for 2 consecutive weeks. The trend still remains intact and the upper target of $80 looks like a strong possibility in coming weeks.
$PLTR Top Pick gave us a +7.85% move from November 25th into the sell on December 5th. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +49.32% YTD.
Week 50 Top Pick: $SOFI
$SOFI: (long setup) Acting well here as it forms a decent consolidation pattern here on the 20 day MA. Look for more upside/breakout in the next few days/ weeks.
Targets: $18 to $20
$SOFI opened strong Monday and faded Tuesday. Wednesday $SOFI made a relative strength move higher and followed that strength through Friday, closing on strength for the week.
$SOFI ended the week higher with a +3.64% gain. The Top Pick of the Week strategy closed out +52.96% YTD on the week!
Stay tuned for more exciting updates and ideas next week!
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